UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'I want to believe'
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Apr 1, 2026 Discussion of the US stance on a possible Gulf retreat and how that could shift Iran's regional control. Exploration of Iran’s reparations demands and the idea of tolls on the Strait of Hormuz. Consideration of tolls’ likely effect on global import costs and energy prices. Brief look at US retail sales resilience and strong semiconductor-led exports from South Korea.
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Markets Cling To Any Gulf De escalation Signals
- Markets are desperately seeking good news on the Gulf war and will latch onto any sign of de-escalation.
- Paul Donovan notes Trump may shorten the war timeline by indicating the US could withdraw without a negotiated deal with Iran.
US Withdrawal Would Shift Regional Power To Iran
- A US retreat from the Gulf would increase Iran's regional control and influence over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Donovan highlights Iran's position could strengthen without direct negotiations or reparations from the US.
Iran May Seek Reparations Via Strait Tolls
- Iran has signalled it could accept an end to active war but is demanding reparations, potentially via shipping tolls through Ormuz.
- Donovan explains proposed tolls would raise Gulf import costs and slightly add to oil and gas prices globally.