UBS On-Air: Market Moves

A briefing on which market moves are signal and which are noise. Discussion of Google's TurboQuant news and why memory stocks sold off. Examination of AI efficiency forecasts and the Jevons paradox driving compute demand. Analysis of the Anthropic Claude Mythos leak and its impact on cybersecurity. Conversation about AI expanding attack surfaces and the investment implications for memory and cyber names.

Kevin Dennean, Technology and Telecom Equity Strategist at UBS CIO, traces the internet from Cold War roots to today. He spotlights packet switching, TCP/IP and Cisco’s role. He covers Netscape’s consumer breakthrough, DWDM and the dot‑com cycle. He closes with future waves: ultra‑fast optics, 6G, holography and networked AI.

Jason Draho, UBS CIO Head of Asset Allocation Americas, gives macro and asset allocation perspective. Jon Cheigh, President & CIO of Cohen & Steers, brings real assets and real estate expertise. They discuss geopolitics and supply‑chain re‑industrialization. They cover AI’s demand for data centers and hardware, inflation’s persistence and implications for real estate, and why hard assets may be early in a long cycle.

Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas at UBS CIO, discusses resilience in emerging markets. He compares why EM bonds have held up while equities faltered. He explores how the energy shock transmits to financial conditions and why Latin America may act as a relative safe haven. He outlines positioning ideas for EM bonds and cautious upside for equities.

A resigned take on delayed Strait of Hormuz threats and how war risks differ from trade tariffs. Discussion of markets turning into a risky casino amid rising uncertainty. Warnings that troop moves could escalate conflict and Iran’s politics make compromise harder. Notes on oil price moves, surprising UK retail strength, and skeptical views on US inflation expectations.

Justin Waring, wealth planning and borrowing strategist, and Dan Scansaroli, portfolio construction expert, discuss selling investments versus borrowing to raise cash. They compare true costs, historical case studies, tax impacts, loan types, and risks like margin calls. Practical tradeoffs and when borrowing may outperform selling are explored in concise, actionable terms.

Discussion of market skepticism toward US claims about talks with Iran and why verification matters. Analysis of Iran rejecting a 15-point US proposal and investor expectations. Comparison of deadline flexibility for the Strait of Hormuz and trade deals. Exploration of a possible economic “phony war” where price moves have not yet hit activity.

Letty Zemaitis, Fixed Income Strategist focused on credit and AI disruption in credit markets. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, providing yield forecasts and positioning guidance. They discuss market moves from geopolitical shocks, a 10-year yield outlook and preferred duration, and how AI is beginning to influence credit stress in software and loan recovery risks.

Market optimism and why investors cling to positive narratives. A 15-point US ceasefire plan and conflicting Iranian responses. How confirmation bias and domestic politics shape market views. UK inflation signals that suggest subdued price pressures. Tariffs showing up in US import prices and the limits of sentiment polls like the German IFO.

Paul Hsiao, asset allocation strategist and author of the CEO Macro Briefing Book, offers concise macro and geopolitical perspectives. He surveys the U.S. economic backdrop and labor market. He explores Middle East conflict impacts on oil, supply chains, and costs. He outlines how AI may broaden beyond hyperscalers into healthcare, finance, and consumer firms and touches on near-term election-driven market effects.