UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Discussion about a possible US pullback from the Gulf and the implications for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Exploration of how an Iranian toll on shipping could act like a trade tariff and push oil prices higher. Coverage of recent tanker attacks and regional security risks. Notes on who might bear defense and war costs and potential shifts in Gulf arms buying.

Natalie Adomait, Managing Partner and COO at Brookfield’s Renewable Power and Transition Group, oversees global renewables, batteries, hydro and nuclear. She discusses soaring electricity demand from AI, EVs and electrification. They cover how gigawatt-scale renewables, gas as a stability bridge, and integrated data center-AI power strategies are reshaping energy markets.

Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS CIO, provides portfolio positioning and macro commentary. He discusses market reactions to U.S.-Iran tensions, a shift from inflation to growth worries, and signals pointing to rising growth risk. He explains how a prolonged conflict could disrupt oil and drag growth, and outlines which economic data to watch next.

Discussion of how Gulf attacks and Houthi missile launches threaten shipping routes and supply chains. Notes on limited oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and implications for markets. Analysis of Bank of Japan comments stabilizing the yen. Conversation about shifting consumer behavior, use of savings, and effects on inflation readings.

A briefing on which market moves are signal and which are noise. Discussion of Google's TurboQuant news and why memory stocks sold off. Examination of AI efficiency forecasts and the Jevons paradox driving compute demand. Analysis of the Anthropic Claude Mythos leak and its impact on cybersecurity. Conversation about AI expanding attack surfaces and the investment implications for memory and cyber names.

Kevin Dennean, Technology and Telecom Equity Strategist at UBS CIO, traces the internet from Cold War roots to today. He spotlights packet switching, TCP/IP and Cisco’s role. He covers Netscape’s consumer breakthrough, DWDM and the dot‑com cycle. He closes with future waves: ultra‑fast optics, 6G, holography and networked AI.

Jason Draho, UBS CIO Head of Asset Allocation Americas, gives macro and asset allocation perspective. Jon Cheigh, President & CIO of Cohen & Steers, brings real assets and real estate expertise. They discuss geopolitics and supply‑chain re‑industrialization. They cover AI’s demand for data centers and hardware, inflation’s persistence and implications for real estate, and why hard assets may be early in a long cycle.

Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas at UBS CIO, discusses resilience in emerging markets. He compares why EM bonds have held up while equities faltered. He explores how the energy shock transmits to financial conditions and why Latin America may act as a relative safe haven. He outlines positioning ideas for EM bonds and cautious upside for equities.

A resigned take on delayed Strait of Hormuz threats and how war risks differ from trade tariffs. Discussion of markets turning into a risky casino amid rising uncertainty. Warnings that troop moves could escalate conflict and Iran’s politics make compromise harder. Notes on oil price moves, surprising UK retail strength, and skeptical views on US inflation expectations.

Justin Waring, wealth planning and borrowing strategist, and Dan Scansaroli, portfolio construction expert, discuss selling investments versus borrowing to raise cash. They compare true costs, historical case studies, tax impacts, loan types, and risks like margin calls. Practical tradeoffs and when borrowing may outperform selling are explored in concise, actionable terms.