UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Shifting concerns
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Mar 30, 2026 Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS CIO, provides portfolio positioning and macro commentary. He discusses market reactions to U.S.-Iran tensions, a shift from inflation to growth worries, and signals pointing to rising growth risk. He explains how a prolonged conflict could disrupt oil and drag growth, and outlines which economic data to watch next.
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Markets Initially Priced Inflation Over Growth
- Markets first priced an inflation and rate shock after the conflict, not a growth shock.
- From Feb 27 to mid-March oil rose ~50%, equities fell ~5%, and the market moved from pricing 2.5 Fed cuts to a ~40% chance of a hike, lifting yields.
Signal When Oil And Yields Decouple
- Late last week markets began shifting from inflation worries toward growth concerns.
- Evidence included falling 2-year yields despite higher oil, gold rallying 3%, and defensive sectors outperforming on Thursday–Friday.
Monitor ISM And March Payrolls For Early Signals
- Watch incoming March economic data closely for growth signs, especially ISM and payrolls.
- ISM (released Apr 1) likely holds steady; March payrolls (due Good Friday) consensus 60k but could be 100k+, which would ease labor concerns.