UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The power of words'
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Mar 30, 2026 Discussion of how Gulf attacks and Houthi missile launches threaten shipping routes and supply chains. Notes on limited oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and implications for markets. Analysis of Bank of Japan comments stabilizing the yen. Conversation about shifting consumer behavior, use of savings, and effects on inflation readings.
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Wartime Damage Extends Supply Chain Recovery
- Geopolitical damage now can lengthen supply-chain recovery beyond the war's end.
- Paul Donovan cites attacks on UAE and Bahrain plants and Houthi missile launches risking Suez-bound shipping as sources of prolonged disruption.
Rerouting Ships Cuts Effective Cargo Capacity
- Shipping reroutes effectively reduce global cargo capacity and slow deliveries.
- Donovan explains longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope and Houthi threats to Suez-bound routes shrink usable ship supply.
Partial Ormuz Access Limits Oil Shock Severity
- Strait of Hormuz closures differ from partial allowances and have varying market effects.
- Donovan notes Iran is allowing limited ships through Ormuz, implying current shocks may choke off less than 20% of global oil supply.