UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: Geopolitical & macroeconomic considerations for business owners
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Mar 24, 2026 Paul Hsiao, asset allocation strategist and author of the CEO Macro Briefing Book, offers concise macro and geopolitical perspectives. He surveys the U.S. economic backdrop and labor market. He explores Middle East conflict impacts on oil, supply chains, and costs. He outlines how AI may broaden beyond hyperscalers into healthcare, finance, and consumer firms and touches on near-term election-driven market effects.
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U.S. Economy Still Fundamentally Healthy
- The U.S. economy remains fundamentally healthy with low unemployment and robust consumption.
- Paul Hsiao highlights private jobs growth weakening but private investment from the AI trade set to accelerate into 2026.
Oil Is The Clear Transmission Channel
- The Middle East conflict can directly disrupt markets through oil, unlike earlier conflicts.
- Paul Hsiao notes oil back to triple-digit territory creates a clear transmission mechanism that raises supply-chain and consumer cost risks.
Monitor Supply Chains And Input Costs
- Expect supply-chain pressure and rising input costs if the Middle East conflict persists.
- Paul Hsiao advises business owners to monitor freight indices and raw material prices as oil-driven costs ripple down the supply chain.