Intro

The declining number of market traders old enough to remember “The X Files” are muttering “I want to believe”. Markets want to hear good news about the Gulf war; trading negative risks would be very difficult. US President Trump is to speak tonight. This may or may not be useful, depending on whether Trump stays on script. Trump did indicate the US could retreat from the Gulf without a deal with Iran—that shortens the expected war timeline, as requiring a deal would first require direct negotiations, which do not appear to be happening.