UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Insights for Dealmakers
Apr 6, 2026
Paul Schau, asset allocation strategist for the Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, offers a concise macro briefing. He covers the 2025 rebound and 2026 outlook for dealmaking. He explains why deals are fewer but larger, how AI now captures a big share of M&A dollars, and how AI is reshaping deal sourcing, diligence, and post-deal value creation.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
M&A Rebound Faces Geopolitical And Policy Crosswinds
- Global M&A rebounded strongly in 2025 despite higher rates, nearing 2021 levels and showing sustained dealmaker enthusiasm.
- The outlook for 2026 depends on economic strength and potential Fed easing, but geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict could raise oil and inflation, slowing deals.
Mega Deals And AI Dominated Deal Value
- The recent rebound in deal value has been driven by fewer but much larger deals and mega-deals, so total deal count fell while dollar volume rose.
- AI-related transactions accounted for about half of M&A dollars, reflecting strategic acquisitions to build or defend AI capabilities.
Private Equity Has Dry Powder But Fundraising Friction
- Private equity faces persistent fundraising headwinds even as exit activity improves, leaving record-high dry powder but slower deployment.
- Improved exits are reducing pressure but the pace of new fundraises and deployment remains a constraint on PE-driven deals.