UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Markets wanted something different'
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Apr 2, 2026 Discussion of market reactions to presidential social-media-style remarks about the Gulf and the risk of escalation affecting infrastructure. Debate over inflation claims versus official data and how higher oil prices squeeze US households. Talk of proposed medicine tariffs and South Korea’s temporary oil price cap and its fiscal risks.
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Markets Largely Discount Social Media Threats
- Markets discounted President Trump's social-media-style threats, limiting the economic fallout from his remarks.
- Paul Donovan notes investors treat such posts skeptically, so immediate market reaction is negative but likely capped.
Iran Retaliation Could Prolong Gulf Disruption
- Threats to hit Iran risk prompting retaliation that damages Gulf infrastructure and prolongs economic disruption.
- Donovan warns that even after the Straits reopen, recovery could be drawn out by further infrastructure damage.
Perception Gap Fuels US Affordability Crisis
- Trump's claim that the US has no inflation clashes with official data and consumer experience, fueling an affordability crisis.
- Donovan points out high gasoline costs above $4/gal widen the gap between perception and presidential claims.