UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Where do we go from here?
Apr 6, 2026
Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS CIO, gives a quick macro check and portfolio read. He breaks down last week’s market rebound, easing oil and geopolitical risks, and what recent US jobs and inflation signals mean. He also outlines near-term interest-rate risk, fixed income preferences, and why gold and global diversification stay on the radar.
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Global Markets Stabilized After Early Conflict Shock
- Markets rebounded last week with US large-cap growth and international equities leading a recovery after earlier declines.
- S&P 500 fell 4.3% from Feb 27 then gained 1.6% in the shortened week while Eurostoxx and German equities rose ~2–2.5%, and VIX fell from ~30 to ~25.
Diplomacy Lowered Worst Case Oil Risk
- Market calm largely reflected signs of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the U.S.-Iran conflict and reduce the chance of oil spiking to extreme levels.
- Examples: UN action to open the Strait of Hormuz, Iran–Oman talks, and European/Chinese involvement pushing toward ceasefire talks.
US Data Still Shows Economic Resilience
- US economic data through mid-March showed resilience with Q1 GDP tracking ~2.5–3% and surprise indices beating expectations.
- Nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 in March vs consensus 65,000, though seasonal/weather and strike effects partially explain volatility.