Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

Ali Ansari, a historian of modern Iran and founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, challenges prevailing views on Tehran's stability. He discusses why the regime may be weaker yet more dangerous than assumed. Short, sharp talks cover who really runs Iran, internal strains like recruitment and pay, and why the regime fears peace more than war.

Janis Kluge, a Senior Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and expert on the Russian economy, discusses Russia’s post-invasion boom turning into stagnation. He highlights rising bad debt and banking risks. He frames problems across growth, cycles and distribution. He argues budget allocation to war versus civilians is the core political-economic threat.

General H.R. McMaster, former three-star U.S. Army general and national security advisor, military historian and Hoover Institution fellow. He frames multiple conflicts as a connected axis of authoritarian aggressors. He warns the West is underestimating coordinated threats from Russia, China, Iran and allies. He urges stronger transatlantic unity, deterrence and economic resilience to seize a narrow strategic opportunity.

Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at IISS, unpacks rapidly shifting dynamics in the Russia–Ukraine war. He discusses why escalation now looks more likely, Ukraine’s new technology-powered strategy and operational gains, Russia’s weakening recruitment and mobilization problems, and Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy and revenue lifelines.

Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director of Eurasia Group Europe and European politics specialist, discusses Europe’s fragmented reaction to the U.S.-Iran conflict. He explores why European governments prioritize tactical cooperation with Washington, risks of regional contagion from Iran, debates over strategic autonomy and defense investment, and the political strains caused by rising Trumpism.

Jeremy Schapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, offers sharp analysis of Trump’s war in Iran. He discusses ego-driven decision making, poor planning and escalation risks. He explores Israel’s role, muddled objectives, and how impulsive politics shape military action. The conversation highlights why conventional geopolitics struggles to explain recent U.S. moves.

James D. Boys, a research fellow and author on international strategy, outlines the madman theory and its use by leaders. He traces origins to Nixon and contrasts that with Trump’s long-standing rhetoric. The conversation covers Trump’s threats to North Korea, Iran, NATO and trade. Debate centers on whether Trump’s actions are calculated signaling or genuine impulsivity.

Dalibor Rohac, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who bridges Europe and Washington, reflects on fraying transatlantic trust. He dissects reactions at the Munich Security Conference. He explores mixed U.S. messaging, the rise of informal backchannels, and whether recent American shifts signal a temporary blip or deeper systemic change.

John Foreman, a former British military officer and defence attaché who served in Kyiv and Moscow, offers a front-row view of Russia’s armed forces. He discusses Russia’s poor 2022 performance, its shift to grinding southern operations, wartime adaptations like drones, persistent industrial and conceptual limits, and whether current negotiations and leadership changes signal real reform or mere managerial tweaks.

Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS, offers a sharp take on transatlantic relations and European security. He discusses Greenland as a turning point in US–Europe ties. He explores rising public anger in Europe, MAGA hostility toward the continent, NATO’s standing, and what Europe must do to prepare for greater independence.