Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl #111 Mujtaba Rahman: Why Iran War Exposed Europe’s Biggest Weakness
Mar 9, 2026
Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director of Eurasia Group Europe and European politics specialist, discusses Europe’s fragmented reaction to the U.S.-Iran conflict. He explores why European governments prioritize tactical cooperation with Washington, risks of regional contagion from Iran, debates over strategic autonomy and defense investment, and the political strains caused by rising Trumpism.
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Europe Has Little Agency In Middle East
- Europe lacks hard power in the Middle East and therefore has little agency to shape the Iran conflict.
- Mujtaba Rahman explains Europeans aim to be tactically helpful to the U.S. to gain leverage and avoid prolonged regional contagion that would hurt Europe on energy, refugees, and terrorism.
U.S. Support For Kurdish Insurgency Raises Contagion Risk
- The U.S. appears to be actively supporting a Kurdish insurgency in Iran, signaling a strategy toward Iranian disintegration rather than simple regime change.
- Rahman warns this risks pulling neutral states like Turkey in and increasing regional contagion that Europe cannot contain.
Build A Collective European Defence Now
- Europe must commit to building a collective European defence and industrial base to reduce dependence on the U.S.
- Rahman urges implementing Draghi's recommendations, accelerating the SAFE programme, and funding member states to reach higher defense spending targets.