Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl #110 Jeremy Schapiro: The Real Reason Why Trump Attacked Iran - And Why It Won’t End Well
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Mar 6, 2026 Jeremy Schapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, offers sharp analysis of Trump’s war in Iran. He discusses ego-driven decision making, poor planning and escalation risks. He explores Israel’s role, muddled objectives, and how impulsive politics shape military action. The conversation highlights why conventional geopolitics struggles to explain recent U.S. moves.
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War Of Choice Driven By Ego
- Donald Trump launched a war of choice driven by ego rather than clear national security needs.
- Jeremy Schapiro links the decision to pleasing Netanyahu and Trump's gratification from prior bold actions like the Maduro operation.
Decision Making Without Process
- The Trump decision process lacks orderly vetting and instead relies on a small circle appealing to his ego.
- Schapiro says Netanyahu and close intimates persuaded Trump by promising easy rewards and low perceived risk.
Big Politically But Modest Militarily
- The operation is large politically but modest by overall U.S. military capacity, using mainly two carriers and bomber sorties.
- Schapiro notes it remains significant yet far smaller than invasions like 2003 Iraq or 2011 Libya.