
Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl #112 Nigel Gould-Davies: Something Is Breaking Inside Russia's War Machine - And It's Quickly Getting Worse
Mar 14, 2026
Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at IISS, unpacks rapidly shifting dynamics in the Russia–Ukraine war. He discusses why escalation now looks more likely, Ukraine’s new technology-powered strategy and operational gains, Russia’s weakening recruitment and mobilization problems, and Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy and revenue lifelines.
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War Likely To Escalate Not End
- The war shows no sign of ending and is likely to escalate rather than settle despite intense diplomacy.
- Nigel Gould-Davies argues fundamentals — time, resources, and drivers — point to escalation as the fifth year begins.
Ukraine Embraces High Tech Warfare
- Ukraine is shifting strategy toward technologized, capital-intensive warfare emphasizing uncrewed systems and AI.
- New defense minister and operational expertise accelerate adoption of UAVs, land/sea drones and smarter tactics at the front.
Starlink Restriction Hurt Russian Operations
- Cutting Russia's access to Starlink materially degraded Russian operations and helped Ukraine regain territory.
- Nigel credits the new Ukrainian minister with persuading Elon Musk to block Russian use, aiding recent limited Ukrainian advances.
