Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

#109 James D. Boys: Trump's Controversial Strategy That Explains His Craziest Foreign Policy Decisions

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Feb 28, 2026

James D. Boys, a research fellow and author on international strategy, outlines the madman theory and its use by leaders. He traces origins to Nixon and contrasts that with Trump’s long-standing rhetoric. The conversation covers Trump’s threats to North Korea, Iran, NATO and trade. Debate centers on whether Trump’s actions are calculated signaling or genuine impulsivity.

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INSIGHT

Madman Theory Requires Sanity

The madman tactic must be used by a rational actor who deliberately feigns irrationality rather than an actually unhinged leader.
Academic definition requires calculated performance, so labeling truly unstable leaders as 'madmen' misapplies the concept.

ANECDOTE

Nixon's Secret Madman Moves In Vietnam

Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger attempted secret threats and discussions to pressure Moscow and Hanoi during Vietnam.
Examples included threats to bomb dikes and talk of nuclear options recorded on White House tapes.

INSIGHT

Why Nixon's Madman Effort Failed

Nixon largely failed to convince adversaries his threats were credible, making his madman efforts ineffective.
Even dramatic signals like extended nuclear-alert exercises over the Arctic produced no Kremlin response.

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This is a conversation with James D Lindsay, a Research Fellow at University College London and an author of a book on what’s called a Madman theory - a foreign policy strategy in which a leader attempts to present himself as completely irrational and willing to inflict great damage on themselves and the others in order to improve their negotiating position and create fear around possible escalation - even if in reality, they are actually a lot more restrained and not as mad as it may seem. The pioneer of this theory was Richord Nixon but the person who is often speculated to truly master the theory is Donald Trump - although there is a big debate over whether he is playing a madman to get what he wants - or whether that’s just really who he is.

With James we talk about how Nixon tried and failed to use this strategy and pioneering this approach but we mostly focus on Donald Trump - about his first term and threatening North Korea with fire and fury, assassinating the Iranian general Qaseem Soleimani and threatening to leave NATO and his second term and his tariff war and attempt for Greenland takeover.

To be honest, I don’t actually agree with most of James’s conclusions. I’m not nearly as sure that Donald Trump is just playing a madman and that it’s all part of a rational, negotiating tactic as he is - I can think it could just as well be a genuine chaos and irrationality. And even if it is a rational strategy, I really don’t think that it has been nearly as successful as James argues, especially in Trump’s second term. And that - whether it is a rational strategy or not - it causes more damage to US interests than it helps them. And so in the podcast, we disagree and argue about both of those things. But nevertheless, I do think that the theory and the concept, the arguments and this whole conversation is really interesting.