At Any Rate

Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers concise expertise on US rates and Treasury financing. They discuss Fed hold implications, why intermediate yields might tick up, labor market uncertainty and easing bets, and the February refunding plus how Treasury issuance and buybacks could evolve.

Patrick Locke, a U.S.-focused FX strategist on Fed and Canada policy; James Nelligan, a Europe FX specialist on sterling and Scandi moves; Anezka Christovova, EM technicals and risk appetite expert; Arindam Sandilya, Asia FX strategist on CNY and BOJ risks. They discuss a bearish dollar backdrop, EM risk appetite extremes, USD/CNY dropping below 7.0, Scandi and sterling rallies, and intervention risks for the yen.

Aditya Chordia, a fixed income analyst at J.P. Morgan focused on European rates, intra-EMU spreads and macro drivers. He revisits selective carry in euro-area rates. He explains growing caution as spreads tighten and volatility rises. He discusses client positioning, euro demand trends and how UK political noise briefly moved gilts.

Ipek Ozil, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy at J.P. Morgan, brings market and policy expertise. She discusses Fed policy paths versus market pricing. She explains Fed balance-sheet T-bill actions and effects on dollar funding. She outlines near-term €STR–SOFR basis drivers and seasonal USD issuance patterns.

Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM and LATAM Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy, join Jonny Goulden for an insightful discussion on emerging market fixed income. They explore how EM markets have shown resilience despite geopolitical noise, underscoring the importance of looking beyond the headlines. Anezka delves into technical signals that indicate risk appetite, while Ben highlights the return of market access for lower-rated sovereigns. Their analysis sheds light on current trends in EM credit and spreads.

Join Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy at J.P. Morgan, as she delves into the latest US inflation data and the future of inflation markets. She discusses the impact of government shutdowns on CPI and offers her projections, including a core CPI forecast of 3.7% for H1 2026. Phoebe also examines the dynamics behind US breakeven strength while addressing concerns over goods inflation and Fed independence. Alongside European Rates strategist Frida Infante, they tackle the ongoing Euro area disinflation and its implications.

Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy at J.P. Morgan, anticipates a $1.96 trillion U.S. deficit and rising Treasury needs, while discussing T-bills' role and coupon increases. Aditya Chordia explains record euro-area gross issuance, primarily from Germany, despite stable net figures. Takafumi Yamawaki analyzes Japan's disciplined fiscal stance and its JGB issuance amid market burdens from BOJ adjustments. Ben Jarman highlights Australia's improving fiscal outlook and issuance cuts while looking at New Zealand's contrasting recovery trajectory.

Patrick Locke, a U.S.-based J.P. Morgan analyst, and Junya Tanase, a Tokyo-based expert on Asian FX, share key insights into the currency markets amid rising political tensions. They dissect impacts of Fed independence anxiety on the dollar and the recent surprise snap election in Japan. Patrick explores client sentiments around Powell’s challenges, while Junya reveals how election outcomes could trigger equity buying and yen fluctuations. They also discuss FX intervention effectiveness and shifting dynamics affecting the yen and CNY forecasts.

Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research at J.P. Morgan, and Otar Dgebuadze, Natural Gas Research analyst, delve into the tumultuous landscape of global commodities. They discuss the implications of Section 232 on metals markets, the factors driving Europe's soaring gas prices, and the unique volatility surrounding silver and gold. With weather patterns and geopolitical tensions in play, they explore why oil prices haven't surged despite market optimism. Get ready for sharp insights into the ever-changing commodity scene!

Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM and LATAM Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan, dive into the latest developments in emerging market fixed income. They explore how geopolitical headlines and macro trends influence market movements. Anezka examines EMFX positioning and how commodity changes affect currencies. Ben offers insights on sovereign credit outlook, focusing on Venezuela's situation and the implications for investors surrounding bonds and regime changes.