At Any Rate EM Fixed Income: Sticking to the knitting
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Jan 15, 2026 Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM and LATAM Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan, dive into the latest developments in emerging market fixed income. They explore how geopolitical headlines and macro trends influence market movements. Anezka examines EMFX positioning and how commodity changes affect currencies. Ben offers insights on sovereign credit outlook, focusing on Venezuela's situation and the implications for investors surrounding bonds and regime changes.
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Macro Trumps Headlines For EM
- Macro and cyclical fundamentals currently matter more to EM markets than headline political events.
- Markets focus on global growth, financial conditions and commodity cycles rather than isolated geopolitical shocks.
Use Cyclical Support To Inform Allocations
- Focus portfolio decisions on the supportive cyclical backdrop: rising growth, loose financial conditions and lower rates.
- Use macro momentum to justify overweight in EM risk while monitoring risks that could alter the global outlook.
Trim EMFX When Short-Term Signals Peak
- Monitor positioning signals before adding to pro-cyclical EMFX exposure because short-term crowds can trigger corrections.
- Reduce risk where short-term technical indicators look extreme, especially in cyclical-dependent currencies.