At Any Rate US Rates: Should we talk about the weather?
Jan 29, 2026
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers concise expertise on US rates and Treasury financing. They discuss Fed hold implications, why intermediate yields might tick up, labor market uncertainty and easing bets, and the February refunding plus how Treasury issuance and buybacks could evolve.
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Fed On Hold, Yields To Drift Higher
- The Fed held rates and Chair Powell signaled policy is well positioned, reducing the case for near-term insurance cuts.
- J.P. Morgan expects the Fed to stay on hold with intermediate yields rising 15–20 bps this year led by the belly of the curve.
Labor Data Keeps Front End Anchored
- Money markets price ~45–50 bps of easing but J.P. Morgan sees the front end better anchored due to labor market uncertainty.
- The committee needs several months of stable employment data before market odds of easing shift materially.
Succession Adds A Dovish Premium
- Fed succession and a potential new chair create a dovish premium in markets before a nominee is seated.
- J.P. Morgan doubts a single new chair can change committee consensus quickly, limiting near-term policy shifts.