At Any Rate Global Rates: Monthly Inflation Outlook
Jan 22, 2026
Join Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy at J.P. Morgan, as she delves into the latest US inflation data and the future of inflation markets. She discusses the impact of government shutdowns on CPI and offers her projections, including a core CPI forecast of 3.7% for H1 2026. Phoebe also examines the dynamics behind US breakeven strength while addressing concerns over goods inflation and Fed independence. Alongside European Rates strategist Frida Infante, they tackle the ongoing Euro area disinflation and its implications.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
US Core Inflation Softness And H1 Pace
- December US CPI was softer than expected even after adjusting for shutdown distortions. Phoebe White expects core CPI to run about 3.7% annualized in H1 2026.
Technical Forces Behind Rising US Breakevens
- Five-year US breakevens have risen but much of the move is technical and seasonal. Phoebe White sees breakevens still below her fair value model and warns near-term upside may be limited.
Macro Risks That Could Cap Inflation Expectations
- Several shifting macro factors could constrain forward inflation expectations. These include softer goods inflation, reduced sensitivity to tariff headlines, and easing Fed-independence concerns.