At Any Rate Global Rates: 2026 Global government issuance outlook
Jan 16, 2026
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy at J.P. Morgan, anticipates a $1.96 trillion U.S. deficit and rising Treasury needs, while discussing T-bills' role and coupon increases. Aditya Chordia explains record euro-area gross issuance, primarily from Germany, despite stable net figures. Takafumi Yamawaki analyzes Japan's disciplined fiscal stance and its JGB issuance amid market burdens from BOJ adjustments. Ben Jarman highlights Australia's improving fiscal outlook and issuance cuts while looking at New Zealand's contrasting recovery trajectory.
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Prepare For Treasury Coupon Increases
- Expect the U.S. Treasury to begin increasing coupon auction sizes in November to meet rising borrowing needs.
- Anticipate about one-third of 2026 net issuance to be bills and only modest private absorption after Fed purchases.
Front-End Focus Keeps WAM Largely Intact
- Treasury will likely concentrate issuance increases in the front-end to belly while keeping 20s and 30s unchanged.
- Weighted average maturity falls only modestly from 70 to about 69 months under current assumptions.
Record Euro Gross Issuance, Stable Net Need
- Euro area gross bond issuance will hit a record near €1.46tn in 2026, driven largely by higher German issuance and COVID redemptions.
- Net bond issuance across the euro area is broadly unchanged as many countries tighten budgets.