NAB Morning Call

Rodrigo Catril, markets strategist and economist, explains why Australia’s spending surge and tight capacity are stirring policy concerns. He discusses buoyant global markets, commodity gains, household spending up 5%, and how capacity constraints could feed inflation. Rodrigo also covers likely RBA timing, key US data risks, and international political and market movers.

A huge US data week looms with payrolls, CPI and retail sales all packed into the same trading week. Markets rallied despite questions over the scale of AI investment and tech spending. Currency and commodity moves react to geopolitics and BoJ politics after a decisive Japan result. Domestic wage and household spending prints could change the near-term outlook.

Armina "Arms" Rosenberg, co-founder of Minotaur Capital and AI-driven portfolio manager, explains running a global equities fund powered by proprietary AI. She discusses Torient's multilingual idea generation, how AI blurs quant and fundamental research, managing AI errors with human checks, and themes like AI infrastructure, European defence and overlooked global opportunities.

Taylor Nugent, NAB market economist who decodes US jobs, central banks and market moves. He unpacks a sharp drop in US job openings and what it means for payrolls. He discusses Alphabet’s heavy AI capex and investor jitters. He also covers BoE and ECB holds, the Aussie’s moves and upcoming data that could sway markets.

Ken Crompton, NAB markets economist who comments on global markets and macro trends. Tech stocks wobble after AMD’s guidance, prompting questions about AI revenue growth. Energy rallies as Iran–US talks stall and oil climbs. US activity data mix and a reshuffled BLS calendar keep traders on their toes.

Skye Masters, NAB markets economist who explains monetary policy and market moves, walks through the RBA’s sharper tone and its pushback of the inflation return timeline. Markets reacted with a stronger Aussie, softer equities and higher bond yields. They cover risks from broader inflation, possible further rate moves, housing approvals, China services PMI and upcoming US and European data.

Rodrigo Catrille, NAB markets economist in Sydney, provides quick market commentary and currency analysis. He reviews RBA’s updated forecasts and the likely 25bp move. He talks USD strength, rising yields and equity gains. They cover no US jobs data this week, a surprising ISM print, Kevin Warsh’s hawkish nomination and a sharp oil slump tied to easing geopolitics.

Ray Atchal, NAB markets economist who covers FX, macro and monetary policy, breaks down market whiplash after Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination. He talks about the sharp gold and silver sell‑off, the dollar and AUD swings, implications for Fed balance‑sheet policy and rate‑cut timing. Ray also surveys China PMI weakness, sticky Japan inflation, and a packed central‑bank week.

Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context and lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School, breaks down why a growing oil glut has driven prices lower. He explores how geopolitical risks like sanctions and Venezuela mask the surplus, how OPEC moves and U.S. shale incentives shape supply, and what price thresholds and inventory corrections might mean for future markets.

Rodrigo Catril, NAB Markets Research economist and strategist, breaks down market-moving headlines. He discusses Microsoft’s AI-driven sell-off and how AI spending is being judged. He covers oil’s jump amid Iran strike fears. He explains China’s scrapping of property borrowing limits and the resulting iron ore rally.