NAB Morning Call RBA’s new forecasts, no jobs data from the US
Feb 2, 2026
Rodrigo Catrille, NAB markets economist in Sydney, provides quick market commentary and currency analysis. He reviews RBA’s updated forecasts and the likely 25bp move. He talks USD strength, rising yields and equity gains. They cover no US jobs data this week, a surprising ISM print, Kevin Warsh’s hawkish nomination and a sharp oil slump tied to easing geopolitics.
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RBA Hike Expected; US Jobs Data Delayed
- Markets expect a 25bp RBA hike and are focused on the Bank's updated forecasts today.
- The US non‑farm payroll release is delayed by the partial government shutdown, leaving markets a bit blind on jobs.
Warsh Nomination Tightens Markets
- Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination tightened US financial conditions and supported a stronger US dollar.
- Markets see Warsh as credible, which may imply a more gradual or conservative approach to Fed reform and policy.
Leveraged Precious Metals Correction
- Precious metals, especially gold, experienced a large, leveraged correction, amplifying currency moves.
- Gold fell around 18% intraday from highs then recovered roughly 10% overnight, showing volatile deleveraging.