NAB Morning Call Too much AI? Will Trump strike Iran? China boosts iron ore.
Jan 29, 2026
Rodrigo Catril, NAB Markets Research economist and strategist, breaks down market-moving headlines. He discusses Microsoft’s AI-driven sell-off and how AI spending is being judged. He covers oil’s jump amid Iran strike fears. He explains China’s scrapping of property borrowing limits and the resulting iron ore rally.
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AI Spending Sparks Divergent Market Reactions
- Microsoft shares plunged because markets fear heavy AI spending will not deliver near-term revenue.
- Meta contrasts by showing AI spend alongside clear ad-revenue gains, calming investors.
Geopolitics Driving Oil Volatility
- Oil jumped ~3% amid market speculation the US might strike Iran unless a new nuclear deal emerges.
- That geopolitical risk, plus sanctions framing Iran's IRG as terrorists, is pushing oil higher and increasing volatility.
Shutdown Risk Hinges On House Action
- Progress on a Senate deal could ease shutdown fears, but House inaction risks a partial government shutdown this weekend.
- Markets prefer a sense of agreement to calm anxiety around fiscal disruption and the dollar.