NAB Morning Call Will US optimism survive a record week for data?
Feb 8, 2026
A huge US data week looms with payrolls, CPI and retail sales all packed into the same trading week. Markets rallied despite questions over the scale of AI investment and tech spending. Currency and commodity moves react to geopolitics and BoJ politics after a decisive Japan result. Domestic wage and household spending prints could change the near-term outlook.
AI Snips
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Massive AI Spend Shapes Markets
- Big tech plans to pour roughly US$650bn into AI this year, about 2% of US GDP, supporting demand for tech investment.
- Phil Dobby warns that such scale may be positive for growth but raises overinvestment concerns.
AI Spending May Not Raise Inflation
- Heavy AI spending may not be inflationary immediately because revenue from AI will take time to materialize.
- That suggests large capital outlays could boost activity without necessarily lifting consumer price inflation soon.
Consumer Sentiment Shows Mixed Signals
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment ticked up but remains down about 11% year-on-year, with one-year inflation expectations easing.
- Longer-term inflation expectations remain sticky around 3.4%, so consumer confidence gains are fragile.