NAB Morning Call Are things too good in the lucky country?
Feb 9, 2026
Rodrigo Catril, markets strategist and economist, explains why Australia’s spending surge and tight capacity are stirring policy concerns. He discusses buoyant global markets, commodity gains, household spending up 5%, and how capacity constraints could feed inflation. Rodrigo also covers likely RBA timing, key US data risks, and international political and market movers.
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Volumes Rising Can Fuel Inflation
- Rising volumes amid falling inflation imply demand growth rather than price-driven spending increases.
- Rodrigo Catril warns that stronger volumes can strain capacity and become an inflationary risk via margin improvement.
Margin Recovery As An Inflation Channel
- Firms seeing solid demand may try to restore margins, creating another channel for inflation.
- Rodrigo Catril highlights this margin response as a closely watched dynamic for policy-makers.
Watch RBA Forecasts Before Betting On Hikes
- Expect the RBA to wait for a fresh set of forecasts before moving on rates.
- Rodrigo Catril suggests May is the likeliest meeting for any further RBA hike given the data flow.