RenMac
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
Episodes
Mentioned books
15 snips
Mar 27, 2026 • 50min
RenMac Off-Script: Strait Talk*
Michael Allen, former U.S. national security official and partner at Beacon Global Strategies, outlines why control of the Strait of Hormuz is vital to global energy and U.S. credibility. He describes Iranian maritime threats, timelines and military tasks to reopen passage. The conversation also covers regional backers, intelligence coordination, and how geopolitics are reshaping market risk and timing on China and Russia.
13 snips
Mar 20, 2026 • 42min
RenMac Off-Script: Fear Factor(s)
They discuss how quadruple witching and gamma dynamics can spike intraday market volatility. The conversation covers an oil-driven supply shock colliding with sticky inflation and slowing growth. Credit and leveraged financial stresses get attention, along with regulatory moves that could affect bank capital. They also flag geopolitical oil risks and near-term market technicals to watch.
Mar 12, 2026 • 1h 5min
RenMac Off-Script: Escort No Shows & Stripper Wells*
Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and oil-market expert, outlines how escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz could remove up to 20% of global supply and push prices much higher. He explains tanker maneuvers, who controls transit risks, refinery and SPR limits, potential winners like Russia, stripper-well ramp delays, and which market signals to watch next.
9 snips
Mar 6, 2026 • 39min
RenMac Off-Script: Crude Awakening
They dissect Iran strikes, shipping insurance pullbacks, and risks to Strait of Hormuz oil flows. They trace how an oil spike could trigger nonlinear consumer and market reactions. They explore weak payrolls, why supply shocks may hinder Fed rate cuts, and signs of credit strain. They flag tech momentum vulnerabilities, housing freezes from rising mortgage rates, and midterm political risks.
7 snips
Feb 27, 2026 • 44min
RenMac Off-Script: Is The Bull Case &@#% !?
They challenge the bullish growth story by questioning tax refund strength and narrow consumption. They unpack falling Treasury yields amid “good” data and extreme tech momentum that echoes 2000. They flag concentrated AI capex, cracks in software breadth, and a late-cycle rotation into energy and defensives. They also touch on data center power politics and upcoming ISM, jobs, and retail prints.
Feb 20, 2026 • 43min
RenMac Off-Script: Credit Concerns
Discussion of a market still rising but losing momentum as bond yields flirt with cycle lows. Exploration of GDP and inflation distortions from a government shutdown and risks from slowing wage growth. Examination of energy market implications from geopolitical and tariff developments. Assessment of credit vulnerabilities, focusing on private equity and private credit over public high-yield spreads.
Feb 13, 2026 • 32min
RenMac Off-Script: AI Bifurcation
They unpack a cooler CPI print and why Fed cuts still look possible. The conversation explores hidden labor weakness and rising job anxiety. There is a deep dive on AI versus non-AI market bifurcation and fragile tech momentum. Trade moves around chips, Taiwan, and tariff shifts get attention. Housing, manufacturing, credit stress, and political risks for policy round out the discussion.
9 snips
Feb 6, 2026 • 56min
RenMac Off-Script: Big Tech Faces Capex Conundrum
Sara Eisen, CNBC anchor and markets reporter, joins to dissect Big Tech’s surge in AI capex and why it rattled investors. They explore momentum trade reversals and sector rotation into hardware and semiconductors. Conversation also touches on the software reckoning, Bitcoin as a market risk signal, and the puzzle of strong GDP amid softening labor signs.
17 snips
Jan 30, 2026 • 49min
RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Your Hands
They unpack the market fallout from a hawkish Fed chair frontrunner and the political and confirmation risks around that pick. They flag parabolic moves in gold, silver and crypto and why sentiment extremes make sharp reversals likely. They cover momentum tech and sector rotation risks, rising trade and shutdown dangers, plus China-Taiwan tensions and near-term market seasonality.
5 snips
Jan 23, 2026 • 42min
RenMac Off-Script: Mysterious Market Reactions
A lively deep dive into how the Fed chair decision and political moves are driving bond and equity flows. Japan’s yield normalization and global repatriation risks get unpacked. Conversations cover Davos takeaways on trade, rare earths, and strategic mineral policy. Market internals like breadth, regional banks, and small-cap leadership are highlighted as signs of improving market health.
