RenMac RenMac Off-Script: AI Bifurcation
Feb 13, 2026
They unpack a cooler CPI print and why Fed cuts still look possible. The conversation explores hidden labor weakness and rising job anxiety. There is a deep dive on AI versus non-AI market bifurcation and fragile tech momentum. Trade moves around chips, Taiwan, and tariff shifts get attention. Housing, manufacturing, credit stress, and political risks for policy round out the discussion.
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Inflation Cooling Raises Cut Odds
- Headline CPI at 2.4% suggests disinflation and increases odds of Fed rate cuts this year.
- Neil Dutta expects at least one to two cuts and sees further downward revision risk for inflation forecasts.
Hidden Weakness In Labor Market
- Consumers report high job-market anxiety, which historically precedes weaker job growth and higher unemployment.
- Neil Dutta highlights narrow hiring concentrated in education and health as masking underlying labor softness.
AI Versus Non‑AI Market Split
- Markets are bifurcating into AI winners (semis, comms) and losers (software, IT services).
- Jeff DeGraff argues price action and technicals signaled the software unwind before the AI narrative took hold.