RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Credit Concerns
Feb 20, 2026
Discussion of a market still rising but losing momentum as bond yields flirt with cycle lows. Exploration of GDP and inflation distortions from a government shutdown and risks from slowing wage growth. Examination of energy market implications from geopolitical and tariff developments. Assessment of credit vulnerabilities, focusing on private equity and private credit over public high-yield spreads.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
GDP Distortions And Wage Growth Risk
- GDP readings are distorted by the government shutdown which raised deflators and lowered real GDP artificially.
- Neil Dutta warns slowing private wage growth (3.9% nominal) is the bigger 2026 risk for demand and consumer spending.
Market Trending Without Momentum
- The market is trending higher but losing momentum, with two-year yields near cycle lows and rotation between cyclicals and defensives.
- Jeff DeGraff says credit remains in good shape while utilities and staples show defensive reacceleration amid tech weakness.
Adjust How You Trade Breakouts
- When markets are trend-following without momentum, avoid urgent buying of breakouts and instead play established uptrends.
- Jeff DeGraff recommends waiting for softening opportunities rather than chasing momentum in such conditions.