RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Is The Bull Case &@#% !?
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Feb 27, 2026 They challenge the bullish growth story by questioning tax refund strength and narrow consumption. They unpack falling Treasury yields amid “good” data and extreme tech momentum that echoes 2000. They flag concentrated AI capex, cracks in software breadth, and a late-cycle rotation into energy and defensives. They also touch on data center power politics and upcoming ISM, jobs, and retail prints.
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Travel Risk Versus Reward In Mexico Story
- Neil Dutta recounts debating a Mexico boys trip amid recent cartel violence, arguing rational risk assessment and incentives matter.
- He notes cartels and Mexican government both have incentives to keep major events safe before the World Cup.
Tax Refunds Aren't Delivering The Expected Consumer Boost
- Tax refunds are not showing up as a big consumer stimulus so far according to the Daily Treasury Statement.
- Neil Dutta notes refunds are flat for early filers while estimated taxes are much higher, suggesting wealthy filers pre-paid gains and will file later.
Yields Say Growth Is Weaker Than The Bull Narrative
- Growth optimism (jobs, ISM, AI capex, refunds) isn't matching the bond market where the 10-year yield is below 4%.
- Neil Dutta highlights the odd mix of strong data narratives yet declining long-term yields, questioning prevailing explanations.