Sentiment, returns and positioning risks

RenMac breaks down why light tax refunds and narrow consumption growth are challenging the bullish economic narrative, even as AI capex continues to carry investment. The team explores falling Treasury yields despite “good” data, extreme tech momentum reminiscent of 2000, and cracks forming beneath the surface in software and breadth. They also cover late-cycle sector rotation into energy and defensives, housing and AI power politics in Washington, and what next week’s ISM, jobs, and retail sales could mean for growth expectations and market leadership.