RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Escort No Shows & Stripper Wells*
Mar 12, 2026
Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and oil-market expert, outlines how escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz could remove up to 20% of global supply and push prices much higher. He explains tanker maneuvers, who controls transit risks, refinery and SPR limits, potential winners like Russia, stripper-well ramp delays, and which market signals to watch next.
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Vol Surface Says Months But Spots Don't
- Market volatility implies a 3–5 month conflict but front-month prices and positioning don't reflect the required durable inventory draws.
- Speculators largely bailed early, leaving physical players to scramble and push spot premiums above paper markets.
SPR Provides Volume But Not Enough Flow
- The IEA/US SPR release (400mb total, ~170mb US) helps but flow rate matters more than cumulative volume.
- At ~3mbd equivalent, SPR release is far short of a potential 15–20mbd shortfall from the strait.
Crisis Reversed Pressure On Russian Oil
- Russia is a major geopolitical winner as buyers shift back to Russian barrels, reversing earlier sanctions-driven gains.
- Johnston notes discounts narrowed and policy waivers (e.g., to India) accelerated Russian export recovery.