Bet The Process

A college basketball analyst with a finance background explains his model-aggregation approach to handicapping and how he blends stats with schematic reads. They walk through key March Madness matchups, discussing line accuracy, team matchups like Illinois vs Houston and Alabama vs Michigan, and why Arizona rates as a high-floor title contender. Closing thoughts cover tournament trends and conference depth.

Ken Pomeroy, college basketball analytics expert and creator of KenPom ratings. He talks bracket strategy and where to find upsets. He explains rating convergence, preseason priors, and transfer effects. He names first-round upset candidates and reveals a contrarian Final Four and champion pick.

Jacob Fortinsky, founder and CEO of Novig, a sports prediction market entrepreneur. He discusses Novig’s $75M raise and plans for a CFTC-regulated sports product. Conversations cover pricing and UX advantages, direct-to-consumer strategy over brokers, and hiring, compliance, and marketing priorities as they scale.

Shane Battier, former NBA defender turned analytics advocate and company culture advisor. He recounts shifting his game through data, how analytics reshaped shot selection and player roles, and why mid-range shots faded. He predicts the rise of mobile seven-footers, talks player development and scouting for role players, and explains bringing sports culture and ‘glue’ people into business.

Ted Knutson, founder of StatsBomb and soccer analytics veteran, and former trader/club operator. He talks about where betting edges now hide in football, how bet frequency and model decay create opportunities, rebuilding women's teams with hands-on management, and the next data revolutions in player development, biomechanics, and recruitment.

A Super Bowl recap focused on betting setups, volume splits, and how late rulings swung results. Conversation moves to prop markets, player props, and specific high-variance wagers. They relive attending Waste Management, pro-am anecdotes, and tournament betting outcomes. The show also covers major golf contenders, LIV dynamics, upcoming golf trips, and planning for a Sloan analytics panel.

Matthew Davidow, a prop-bet modeller specializing in simulation-based sports betting, gives a rapid scan of Super Bowl props. He discusses Kenneth Walker usage uncertainty, Patriots game-plan and blitz strategies, pass-down snap splits, and how modelers adjust for garbage-time and game-state leverage. Short takes on trick plays, receiver skill, and how pricing looks on Novig round out the conversation.

Kris Abdelmessih, an experienced quantitative trader and former SIG trader, shares stories from trading floors and market making. He discusses the evolution of trading firms, maintaining debate-driven cultures while scaling, sizing as risk control, prediction markets versus sportsbooks, phantom liquidity and adverse selection, and real-life market anecdotes.

Adam Levitan, co-founder of Establish The Run, dives into the evolution of sports betting from DFS origins to predictive analytics. He shares insights on how legalization has redefined demand and betting strategies. Adam emphasizes the significance of current game context and unique modeling approaches in gaining an edge, rather than just relying on math. They also analyze the Rams' recent struggles, propose player props, and discuss the Broncos' quarterback situation, revealing the intricacies of betting in a changing landscape.

In this engaging conversation, NFL data analyst Kevin Cole, known for his insightful Unexpected Points newsletter, breaks down the latest playoff action. He discusses whether coaching impacts outcomes more than variance, highlighting key matchups and team dynamics. Kevin dives into CJ Stroud’s performance and evaluates the implications of playoff byes on team success. He also rates Josh Allen as a leading quarterback, while critiquing strategies for teams like the Steelers and Patriots. Tune in for sharp betting insights and strategic game analysis!