Bet The Process Adam Levitan of Establish The Run
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Jan 22, 2026 Adam Levitan, co-founder of Establish The Run, dives into the evolution of sports betting from DFS origins to predictive analytics. He shares insights on how legalization has redefined demand and betting strategies. Adam emphasizes the significance of current game context and unique modeling approaches in gaining an edge, rather than just relying on math. They also analyze the Rams' recent struggles, propose player props, and discuss the Broncos' quarterback situation, revealing the intricacies of betting in a changing landscape.
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Quit And Reevaluate Weekly
- If a projection service feels stale or unprofitable, stop using it and return weekly.
- Levitan recommends treating forecasts on a week-to-week basis and quitting when they stop working.
Props Require Deep Teams Now
- Modern prop modeling requires large teams mixing data scientists and football experts.
- Adam says staying ahead now demands expensive sims and many specialized inputs.
Ball Knowledge Beats Simple Distributional Edges
- Biggest edges increasingly come from ball-knowing shifts, not just distributional tricks.
- Adam highlights sudden personnel or playcalling changes as hard-to-model edge sources.