Bet The Process Jeff Chats With Statsbomb Founder Ted Knutson | Sponsored by Novig
Feb 25, 2026
Ted Knutson, founder of StatsBomb and soccer analytics veteran, and former trader/club operator. He talks about where betting edges now hide in football, how bet frequency and model decay create opportunities, rebuilding women's teams with hands-on management, and the next data revolutions in player development, biomechanics, and recruitment.
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Alpha Comes From Model Mispricing Not New Models
- Betting edges now come from identifying where models or market models are wrong rather than building better standalone models.
- Ted says Championship markets now align with models so he gets far fewer pure-model bets and hunts deviations and mispriced decay functions.
Bet The Change Not The Projection
- Bet the change, not the absolute projection: trade how markets react to new info rather than the model's raw forecast.
- Use injury timing and lineup certainty to quantify how much the market should move before placing a wager.
Opening Japanese Baseball Lines Overnight
- Ted ran Japanese baseball lines for Pinnacle, opening small and scaling to ~$2,000 with limited pitcher info and auto-movers.
- Despite unknowns he preserved ~1.6% season hold by trading overnight and using research on Japanese sites.