Bet The Process The Big Game (aka Super Bowl) with Matthew Davidow | Sponsored by Novig
10 snips
Feb 3, 2026 
Matthew Davidow, a prop-bet modeller specializing in simulation-based sports betting, gives a rapid scan of Super Bowl props. He discusses Kenneth Walker usage uncertainty, Patriots game-plan and blitz strategies, pass-down snap splits, and how modelers adjust for garbage-time and game-state leverage. Short takes on trick plays, receiver skill, and how pricing looks on Novig round out the conversation.
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Blowouts Can Skew Team Ratings
- Massey Peabody's ratings can overvalue teams from blowout-first-half performances because each game is weighted equally.
- Rufus plans to adjust situational weighting to devalue low-leverage plays and better reflect true team strength.
Simulate Game States For Better Totals
- Use simulation models for accurate football totals and game-state behavior rather than simple inference models.
- Expect simulation work to be far more time-consuming and fragile to get right than regression-style methods.
Sims Require Deep Conditional Models
- Detailed play-level simulation models require modeling many conditional outcomes for each at-bat or play.
- Jeff notes he once built such a simulation for baseball and it barely outperformed his prior model.