Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Shandor Whitcher, an economist who built a random forest-based recession probability model, explains his approach and forecasts. He walks through which indicators matter most and recent model updates. The conversation covers market moves since the Iran conflict, the surprising role of the yield curve, and what would realistically tip the economy into recession.

They unpack market turmoil after the Middle East conflict, including stock drops, rising yields and surging oil. They debate how prolonged high oil prices could reshape forecasts and raise recession odds. They explore fiscal offsets, inflation pressures, Fed signals, and scenarios where oil spikes trigger deeper economic pain.

A brisk conversation about geopolitics and how Middle East tensions could ripple through markets. A skeptical look at AI hype, possible economic paths, and what valuations might really mean. A stark focus on generational injustice: how rising asset prices, housing unaffordability, and policy choices are shifting wealth and opportunity away from young people.

Chris Lafakis, an energy and geopolitics economist, and Matt Colyar, an inflation analyst, break down the recent Middle East supply shock and the sharp oil price surge. They discuss inflation readings, consumer spending weakness, and scenarios for how the conflict and oil disruptions could reshape growth and prices in the months ahead.

Dante DeAntonio, economist specializing in labor-market data and productivity, breaks down weak February payrolls and shifting household survey mechanics. He discusses industry pain, rising long-term unemployment, and the puzzling productivity gains alongside flat hiring. The conversation also covers how recent Middle East tensions have pushed oil toward $90 and the possible economic fallout.

A lively debate about AI’s near-term economic paths and four modeled scenarios. They compare quantitative forecasts with darker narratives and argue over rapid diffusion versus slow adoption. The team weighs job-market upheaval, tech-led stock bubbles, concentration risks, and whether AI firms could become systemic threats.

Jared Bernstein, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and economic commentator; Jim Parrott, housing policy expert at the Urban Institute. They debate the fallout from a major Supreme Court tariff ruling, dissect Q4 GDP and labor-market signals, probe persistent housing supply shortfalls and bipartisan fixes, and weigh AI’s promise and risks for productivity and jobs.

Matt Collier, an inflation and price-stats economist, and Dante D'Antonio, a labor market specialist, join to unpack January’s payroll and inflation reads. They debate seasonal quirks, the birth–death model, payroll revisions, and unusual sector patterns. Then they walk through CPI drivers like shelter, medical care, energy, vehicle prices, and how CPI and PCE differ.

Dante DeAntonio, an economist at Moody's Analytics who analyzes labor markets and payroll trends. He discusses the delayed jobs report, alternative payroll signals and JOLTS data. They unpack expected benchmark revisions, the pace of underlying job growth, and how AI and market volatility might reshape hiring and spending.

Martin Wurm, a Moody's Analytics financial economist who covers the Federal Reserve, discusses Kevin Warsh as a potential Fed chair. They explore Warsh's inflation-first stance, his push to narrow the Fed’s toolkit, debates over QE and regulation, and whether his views would reshape Fed independence. Short takes on market reactions and productivity’s role in rate policy round out the conversation.