Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Shakespeare in Love
Feb 6, 2026
Dante DeAntonio, an economist at Moody's Analytics who analyzes labor markets and payroll trends. He discusses the delayed jobs report, alternative payroll signals and JOLTS data. They unpack expected benchmark revisions, the pace of underlying job growth, and how AI and market volatility might reshape hiring and spending.
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January Payrolls Look Fragile
- Early partial indicators (ADP, Revelio) showed very weak private payroll gains for January, signaling a fragile jobs picture.
- Dante DeAntonio forecasts about 40,000 payroll gains, consistent with recent sub-50k monthly growth and a weakened labor market.
50K Jobs Needed To Stabilize Unemployment
- Break-even monthly job growth to keep unemployment stable is roughly 50,000 per month given current labor force trends.
- Dante estimates underlying monthly job creation is below that, implying unemployment likely drifts higher in 2026.
Benchmark Revisions Can Reveal Lost Jobs
- The BLS benchmark revisions reset prior payroll levels using near-census QCEW data and can lower past monthly job totals substantially.
- Dante warns the preliminary ~900,000 downward revision implies much weaker 2025 job growth once applied and re-estimated.
