Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Pulse on Payrolls and Prices
Feb 13, 2026
Matt Collier, an inflation and price-stats economist, and Dante D'Antonio, a labor market specialist, join to unpack January’s payroll and inflation reads. They debate seasonal quirks, the birth–death model, payroll revisions, and unusual sector patterns. Then they walk through CPI drivers like shelter, medical care, energy, vehicle prices, and how CPI and PCE differ.
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Healthcare Spike Driven By Seasonals
- Healthcare's 123,000 January gain was largely a seasonal-adjustment artifact, not a true one-month surge in hiring.
- Dante argues that the gain likely should have been spread across prior months, so future outsized gains are unlikely.
Underlying Job Growth Near Break‑Even
- Panelists estimate underlying monthly job growth (abstracting noise) around 40–50k, near the break-even needed to keep unemployment stable.
- They see the labor market hovering close to a steady state rather than robust expansion.
Payrolls Revised Down Big In 2025
- First-month payroll revisions averaged minus 57,000 across 2025, one of the largest downward initial revisions outside 2008 and the pandemic.
- Marisa DiNatale uses this to urge caution about taking initial monthly payroll headlines at face value.