Moody's Talks - Inside Economics $100 Oil...and Counting
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Mar 13, 2026 Chris Lafakis, an energy and geopolitics economist, and Matt Colyar, an inflation analyst, break down the recent Middle East supply shock and the sharp oil price surge. They discuss inflation readings, consumer spending weakness, and scenarios for how the conflict and oil disruptions could reshape growth and prices in the months ahead.
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January Income Gains Mask Underlying Slowing
- Personal income rose 0.4% in January but was partly juiced by tax changes and COLA adjustments, and the savings rate ticked up to 4.5%.
- Year‑over‑year income growth slowed from recent months despite the monthly gain.
Business Investment Momentum Has Stalled
- Core durable goods orders (excluding aircraft) were flat in January while shipments fell, signaling softer business investment ahead.
- Core capital goods new orders weakness suggests investment momentum faded from late 2025.
Inflation Feels Closer To 3 Percent Than 2
- Recent CPI and PCE data point to inflation running nearer 3% when using three‑month annualized averages, not the Fed's 2% target.
- Shelter is easing but healthcare and trade‑exposed goods and tariff effects are adding upward pressure.