Moody's Talks - Inside Economics 90,000 Lost Jobs and $90 Oil
Mar 6, 2026
Dante DeAntonio, economist specializing in labor-market data and productivity, breaks down weak February payrolls and shifting household survey mechanics. He discusses industry pain, rising long-term unemployment, and the puzzling productivity gains alongside flat hiring. The conversation also covers how recent Middle East tensions have pushed oil toward $90 and the possible economic fallout.
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Hosts Debate Pasta Brands Before Getting Serious
- Hosts spend several minutes debating pasta brands DiCecco and Barilla and surface-level differences like texture and shape availability.
- Franco, their producer, reportedly makes homemade pasta, which Mark jokes would settle the debate in person.
Population Controls Slashed Participation Rate
- New population controls shifted labor force levels down and cut the participation rate from 62.4% in December to about 62% by February.
- The change removed prime-age men and added older adults, so prime-age participation held up better than the headline rate.
Productivity Gains Are Sustaining Output But Hurt Hiring
- Productivity surged: Q4 nonfarm business productivity was strong (annualized ~2.8%), even as GDP growth slowed, implying firms can maintain output with fewer hours.
- That strength helps GDP but risks restraining hiring and keeps wage gains muted.