Hidden Forces

A deep dive into the supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure and how its effects are finally reaching global markets. They unpack why diesel and jet fuel are the crisis epicenter and how spot markets are fracturing across regions and time. The conversation covers emergency reserve releases, demand rationing, and how the shock might reshape electrification, stockpiling, and global oil production growth.

Captain John Konrad, founder of gCaptain and maritime strategist, explains the Hormuz Hypothesis in plain terms. He outlines how shipping, insurance, and naval capacity turn the Strait of Hormuz into geopolitical leverage. He describes U.S. moves to use reinsurance and maritime tools to shape international concessions and why reopening the chokepoint may be intentionally delayed.

Sebastian Mallaby, a narrative nonfiction writer and author of The Infinity Machine, profiles Demis Hassabis and DeepMind. He traces Hassabis's chess prodigy roots and scientific drive. The conversation covers the shift from symbolic AI to deep learning, Hassabis's early skepticism of transformers, and how ChatGPT reshaped the competitive AI race.

Gregg Carlstrom, The Economist’s Middle East correspondent based in the Gulf with 15 years on the beat, walks through Gulf sentiment and the shifting politics since the US–Iran campaign began. He discusses Iranian restraint, the mosaic defense doctrine, the gap between tactical strikes and strategic outcomes, and the energy market fallout from disruptions like a closed Strait of Hormuz.

Jacob Siegel, writer, editor, U.S. Army veteran and author of The Information State, explores how the internet created a new form of political rule. He traces intellectual roots from cybernetics to Cold War control. They examine digital swarms, anonymity-driven mass formation, platform power, surveillance entanglement, and proposals for restructuring the internet’s political economy.

Hamidreza Azizi, an Iranian scholar and fellow focused on Iran’s regional policy, discusses the US-Israel campaign’s shifting aims and where their goals align or clash. He examines the impact of targeted killings on Iran’s leadership, the war’s effects on nuclear incentives, and the varied responses across Gulf states. Short, sharp insights into the conflict’s strategic trajectory.

Barry Eichengreen, renowned economic historian of global currencies, offers a sweep through monetary history and the forces shaping the dollar. He traces coinage, Florence, the Dutch financial revolution, and the Spanish silver dollar. He then examines Britain’s rise, the dollar’s internationalization, and modern threats like political erosion and alternatives such as stablecoins and the euro.

In Episode 467 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bruno Maçães — geopolitical strategist, former Minister of European Affairs for Portugal, and author of World Builders — about the Iran War, what it reveals about the Trump administration's strategic logic, and how the decision to initiate what may prove to be the most expansive American-led war in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq is reshaping the global order. Kofinas and Maçães examine the competing explanations for why the campaign was launched when it was — from the argument that Washington was drawn into the conflict by Israel, to the question of whether Trump's own instincts and political calculations were the decisive factor — including a close reading of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's public comments about the role Israel played in precipitating American military involvement. They also discuss what Washington and Tel Aviv's strategic visions may be for the post-conflict order, the fractures emerging within Trump's own political base, and how early battlefield developments are already complicating the administration's attempts to construct a coherent narrative around the war. The conversation closes with a broader assessment of where this conflict fits within Bruno's framework of world building and American decline — how the United States appears to be abandoning soft power in favor of unbridled military force, what that shift signals to capitals around the world, and why Beijing may be the most important audience of all for everything that is now unfolding. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Join our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/04/2026

Joshua Landis, professor of Middle East Studies and longtime regional analyst, breaks down the US‑Israel campaign against Iran. He contrasts U.S. vagueness with Israel’s regime‑change aims. He discusses risks of repeating past regime‑change fallout, the dangers of arming Kurdish groups, and the most plausible optimistic and catastrophic outcomes for Iran and the region.

Odd Arne Westad, Yale historian of the Cold War and modern East Asia, lays out a stark warning using 1914 as a lens. He compares multipolar rivalry, the rise of China, and failed post-1991 integration. Short takes cover nuclear risks, dangerous flashpoints like Taiwan and the South China Sea, and how missed diplomatic bridges could push great powers toward catastrophe.