Why There Are No Good Options Left in the US War Against Iran | Gregg Carlstrom

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Mar 24, 2026

Gregg Carlstrom, The Economist’s Middle East correspondent based in the Gulf with 15 years on the beat, walks through Gulf sentiment and the shifting politics since the US–Iran campaign began. He discusses Iranian restraint, the mosaic defense doctrine, the gap between tactical strikes and strategic outcomes, and the energy market fallout from disruptions like a closed Strait of Hormuz.

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INSIGHT

US Is An Energy Winner And Relatively Insulated By Distance

The US gains from the crisis as an energy exporter and is relatively insulated from regional disruption.
American LNG capacity and distance from the fighting make the US one of the least affected major powers in this conflict.

INSIGHT

Gulf Will Remain Dependent On US Security Despite Frustration

The Gulf may grow more dependent on the US for security while simultaneously pushing for indigenous capabilities.
Europe is dismissed as a reliable security partner; Russia and China lack appetite or capacity to fill America's role militarily.

INSIGHT

Confusion Over US Objectives Leaves Gulf Hesitant To Commit

Regional observers are uncertain about US aims; many believe Trump expected a short war and quick deal.
Gulf capitals lack clarity from Washington and therefore hesitate to commit militarily for fear of being left exposed.

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In Episode 471 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Gregg Carlstrom — Middle East correspondent for The Economist, based in Dubai and Riyadh, and a veteran reporter covering the region for fifteen years — about the mood across the Gulf States since the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran began on February 28th, and what the conflict's trajectory reveals about the widening gap between operational success and strategic victory.

The conversation opens with an assessment of shifting opinion inside Saudi Arabia and across the Gulf — from early opposition to the war to hawkish demands in some quarters that the United States, having opened Pandora's box, now finish what it started.

Carlstrom and Kofinas examine the human and material toll the conflict has taken so far, the extent and internal logic of Iranian restraint in targeting Gulf infrastructure, and the implications of Iran's decentralized Mosaic Defense Doctrine for command and control and efforts at de-escalation.

The conversation then turns to the growing gap between the operational success of US and Israeli airstrikes and the larger strategic picture — including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its consequences for global oil and LNG markets — before examining the divergent strategic objectives of Washington and Tel Aviv, the nuclear question as it applies to both Israel and the United States, the opaque power struggles within what remains of the Iranian regime, and what a near-term resolution — or further escalation — might look like.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 03/24/2026