America's Gamble: Regime Change, Retreat, or State Collapse in Iran | Hamidreza Azizi

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Mar 18, 2026

Hamidreza Azizi, an Iranian scholar and fellow focused on Iran’s regional policy, discusses the US-Israel campaign’s shifting aims and where their goals align or clash. He examines the impact of targeted killings on Iran’s leadership, the war’s effects on nuclear incentives, and the varied responses across Gulf states. Short, sharp insights into the conflict’s strategic trajectory.

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INSIGHT

Assassination Undermines Political-Military Bridge

Killing Ali Larijani severs a key bridge between Iran's political and military decision-making.
That loss shifts power toward military hardliners, complicating prospects for negotiated settlement and increasing fragmentation risk.

INSIGHT

Decapitation Could Produce Military Rule Or Fragmentation

Continued decapitation risks consolidating military rule or causing elite fragmentation.
If military elites dominate, Iran may become a security-state; if killings continue, rival factions could splinter governance.

INSIGHT

Negotiation Desire Versus Decapitation Campaign

Trump wants negotiations; Israel prioritized decapitation to force long-term neutralization.
When pragmatic figures like Larijani couldn't enable talks, Israel likely gained freer rein to pursue harder options.

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In Episode 469 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Hamidreza Azizi — Iranian scholar, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, nonresident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, and author of the forthcoming The Axis of Resistance: Iran, Israel, and the Struggle for the Middle East — about how the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran has evolved over its first three weeks, and what the conflict's trajectory reveals about the competing strategic objectives driving it.

The conversation opens with an assessment of how the war has unfolded since its start, examining where US and Israeli objectives align, where they diverge, and what those divergences mean for the conflict's direction. Azizi and Kofinas discuss the significance of the targeted killing of Ali Larijani — secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council — as part of a broader campaign to decapitate the Islamic Republic's leadership structure, and what the systematic elimination of senior Iranian officials means for Tehran's ability to manage both the military and political dimensions of the war simultaneously.

The conversation then turns to the nuclear question — specifically whether the war has made a nuclear-armed Iran more likely rather than less — before examining the divergent responses of the Gulf states and the key variables Azizi believes are most important for understanding where this conflict goes from here.

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Episode Recorded on 03/17/2026