Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Lupin Rahman, former head of sovereign credit at PIMCO and author, offers a short take on sovereign debt and emerging market dynamics. She walks through why sovereigns behave differently from corporates. She explores FX and hard‑currency risks, how geopolitics in the Middle East reshapes flows, and which EM issuers and sectors may win or lose under commodity and duration shocks.

Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist known for macro and market strategy, discusses how headline indices hide deep market stress. She explains rotation and churn after an oil shock, why quality and profitability now matter, how oil disruptions transmit to the economy, and why index concentration can mislead investors.

Nadia Martin Wiggen, Director at Svelland Capital and commodities/shipping markets specialist, outlines why May is the real timeline for securing the Strait of Hormuz. She discusses diverted oil routes, Asia’s scramble for cargoes, refined product hoarding and tight refining margins. Nadia also covers military constraints, shipping and insurance signals, and which regions and fuels are most vulnerable.

Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer at StoneX and fertilizer market analyst, explains how the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure have removed massive nitrogen exports. He outlines soaring urea prices, lost production equivalent to nearly the U.S. corn crop’s needs, and why repairs could take years. Shortages, tighter stockpiles, and shipping risks may force dramatic planting and pricing shifts worldwide.

Rory Johnston, independent oil analyst and founder of Commodity Context, warns the Strait of Hormuz closure has created an unprecedented oil shock. He quantifies massive shut‑ins, compares this to past crises, and outlines how refinery cuts, routing limits, strategic releases and geopolitics could push prices far higher or, if de-escalation occurs, allow flows to resume.

Bob Elliott, Chief Investment Officer at Unlimited Funds and former Bridgewater committee member, lays out the fallout from a surging oil shock. He discusses how oil-driven price spikes sap consumer spending and lift inflation. He argues markets are mispricing growth and policy risk, and makes the case for cross-asset trades and diversified commodity exposure.

Rupert Mitchell, founder of Blind Squirrel Macro and macro/markets researcher formerly in banking, walks through why he sees the US market as fragile. He flags a potential flood of mega IPOs, private credit strains, and RSU selling. He outlines bearish targets like SaaS and boutique M&A banks, plus bullish plays in gold miners, Canadian oil and refiners.

Chris Morris, president of LandFund Partners and institutional farmland investor, explains why U.S. irrigated row‑crop land is a prized hard asset. He discusses groundwater security in the Mid‑South, farmland’s low correlation to markets, solar lease economics, and how AI and tech are boosting yields and values. The conversation also covers water rights, valuation gaps, and institutional demand for smaller family farms.

Alex Gurevich, founder and CIO at HonTe Investments and author of The Next Perfect Trade, outlines bullish trades in platinum, palladium and copper. He warns AI could first be deflationary by automating many jobs, forcing deep Fed rate cuts and heavy stimulus. He also highlights a potential steepener in yields, a “perfect trade” opportunity in Japan, and an impending energy bottleneck from massive AI compute demand.

Martin Wolf, FT chief economics commentator known for clear global macro and energy analysis. He examines how a prolonged Iran war could threaten the Strait of Hormuz and spark an oil shock. He outlines scenarios that could push prices sharply higher, assesses strategic ambiguity and US aims, and argues the conflict exposes vulnerabilities in fossil-fuel reliance and reserve policy.