Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate and Columbia economist known for work on inequality and public policy, joins to discuss war risks with Iran and their likely spike in oil and food prices. He connects oil shocks, tariffs, and slow growth to stagflation risk. They also cover geopolitical fallout, shipping and insurance limits, and how AI investment and bubbles could affect the broader economy.

Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorderCapital and creator of the Global Liquidity Indexes, studies macro liquidity cycles. He explains why global liquidity momentum peaked and why markets sit on a nervous knife-edge. He highlights China-driven gold gains, late-cycle opportunities in Chinese tech and commodities, and why Bitcoin acts like a liquidity canary. He urges a defensive tilt as liquidity tightens.

Peter Howitt, Nobel-winning economist known for work on creative destruction, explains how innovation fuels growth while displacing workers and firms. He compares generative AI to past general-purpose technologies and explores its rapid adoption, who may be displaced or augmented, downstream inventions, superstar firms and antitrust concerns, and AI’s role as a research collaborator.

Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception and macro-investment strategist, unpacks risks from a potential Iran energy shock and how its duration could reshape markets. He outlines a possible manufacturing recovery and inventory rebuild. He describes jobless growth driven by productivity gains and a summer peak of market euphoria possibly capped by a generational IPO.

Rick Rule, veteran resource investor and founder of Rule Investment Media, shares his contrarian metals thesis and portfolio moves. He explains rotating from silver into miners and why royalties and streaming companies matter. He discusses valuation arbitrage, big streaming deals ahead, and criteria for great mining and oil & gas names.

Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize–winning economist and New York Times columnist, offers sharp takes on the dollar’s durability and why it resists dethronement. He explores China’s weak yuan and global imbalances. He weighs tariffs versus currency adjustment, the Fed’s credibility around Kevin Warsh, and how AI-driven capex, demographics, and fiscal pressures reshape interest rates and economic risks.

Milton Berg, technical market analyst and founder of Milton Berg Edge, returns to discuss rare volume-and-price turning-point signals. He covers a troubling December volatility signal, a one-day island reversal in the Russell 2000, bearish calls on gold and silver from a suspected climax top, and a skeptical take on Bitcoin after failed technical support tests.

Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Capital and a forensic short-seller turned diversified allocator. He explains why he won’t rush to short flashy AI names until an IPO flood creates supply. He also discusses Muddy Waters’ shift into metals and mining, Vietnam and India opportunities, and a momentum-driven S&P 500 strategy. Topics cover timing, hype versus supply, and expanding long strategies.

Alexander Campbell, founder of Rose AI and ex-Bridgewater commodities lead, explains why silver is moving East and why solar made it industrially vital. He outlines Shanghai-West price gaps, physical flow frictions, and how speculative flows amplify moves. He also warns of an AI-driven shakeup in software, predicting shifts to local compute, open models, and value accruing to data and hardware.

Raghav Khanna, Managing Director at Oaktree specializing in private debt and structured credit, breaks down modern lending risks. He discusses how Oaktree spotted First Brands' red flags. Short takes cover underwriting beyond KPIs, pitfalls of adjusted EBITDA, PIKs masking stress, risks in software/SaaS, and how private credit vintages and liquidity dynamics are evolving.