Monetary Matters with Jack Farley Lyn Alden on Macro Consequences of AI and The Stolgard Incident (Monitoring The Situation Replay)
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May 13, 2026 
Lyn Alden, macro strategist and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, and author of the sci-fi novel The Stolgard Incident. She discusses AI as a multi-decade structural shift, bullishness on semiconductors amid physical bottlenecks, the capex-driven dynamics of hyperscalers, Bitcoin and stablecoin roles, a K-shaped economy, and her novel’s 2070s vision of AI-driven inequality and escapism.
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Semiconductors Gain From Physical Bottlenecks
- Semiconductors benefit from physical bottlenecks and limited global capacity, creating durable value for picks-and-shovels plays.
- Examples: only three major memory firms control >90% of market and a handful of GPU makers led by NVIDIA.
Hyperscalers Face A CapEx Value Reset
- Hyperscalers face a CapEx arms race that reduces their historical returns on invested capital and lowers accumulated monopoly-like value.
- Lower switching costs for AI ecosystems mean winners may be more company-differentiated, not broad monopoly rent machines.
Rotate To Whatever Model Works Not The Hype
- Stay model-agnostic and rotate tools pragmatically rather than chasing every new release.
- Lyn uses whichever models prove effective over time and focuses attention where it creates practical value for her work and VC deals.
