Monetary Matters with Jack Farley Warren Pies: The Scramble for Compute Cures All Ills | Two Wolves of “Hockeysticking Earnings” and Hormuz Oil Shock (Plus Caliban)
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May 4, 2026 
Warren Pies, founder of 314 Research and creator of Caliban, is a data-driven macro and markets analyst. He contrasts an AI-driven scramble for compute fueling an earnings boom with a massive Strait of Hormuz oil shock. He explains why CapEx and frontier models validate a bullish equity case, details the scale of the oil shortfall, and previews his tactical positioning across stocks, oil, and bonds.
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Lumpy Earnings Boom Is Not Necessarily A Bubble
- The earnings boom is lumpy and top-heavy (memory chips and energy), but historical precedents show such dispersion occurs in early/mid cycles and recoveries.
- Median-stock estimate gains and industry cross-sections indicate real broadening beneath the top-heavy headline.
GPU Shortage Signal Predicted AI Leadership
- 314 Research's proprietary GPU availability index showed an unprecedented collapse in on-demand availability across vintages, culminating with Blackwell at ~0% availability.
- That scramble for compute preceded SMH moves and the Mythos leak, validating the AI capex narrative driving markets.
Don't Sell Tech Because CapEx Rises
- Trust hyperscaler CapEx signals rather than reflexively selling MAG-7 on higher spending.
- Improved frontier models (Mythos, GPT 5.5) ratify CapEx as investment not waste, so investors should accept higher capex rather than punish stocks.