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In this episode, Warren Pies, founder of 314 Research and Caliban, joins the show to analyze the "two wolves" currently battling for control of the market: the transformative power of AI and the historic oil crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Pies details how an "agentic explosion" in AI and a massive scramble for compute are fueling an unprecedented earnings boom, with proprietary data showing that frontier models like Mythos are driving a legitimate, if lopsided, market advance. On the flip side, we explore the terrifying 10-million-barrel-per-day oil deficit caused by geopolitical blockades and why "managed demand destruction" has been the only force keeping prices from skyrocketing past $200. Despite these risks, Warren remains fundamentally bullish on equities, arguing that the AI-driven CapEx cycle and resilient fiscal stimulus are powerful enough to help the S&P 500 look through the energy nightmare. We also get an exclusive look at Caliban. Finally, Warren shares his tactical portfolio positioning, explaining his strategy for staying overweight in both stocks and oil commodities while remaining underweight in fixed income. Tune in to see how the S&P 500 reached the 7,000 target predicted in 2024 and why Warren believes the path to 8,000 remains intact. Recorded May 1st, 2026.
