Decision Desk HQ Podcast

The 2026 contest for the U.S. House of Representatives looks favorable for Democrats. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is in the low 40s, and Democrats have led in the generic ballot by roughly 5 points since November. Although the midterms are about seven months away, we also have a pretty good idea about which seats are most vulnerable for each party — especially Republicans, who are more likely to lose ground in 2026 as the presidential party. But what about some districts that are more on the periphery? In midterms, the opposition party sometimes flips seats that are pretty favorable for the party in the White House. Meanwhile, the president’s party occasionally springs a surprise even if the midterms don’t go particularly well for that side of the aisle. To talk about some potential under-the-radar races in 2026, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Erin Covey, the House Editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, where she leads coverage of the electoral situation in the U.S. House of Representatives.The conversation began with an overview of the 2026 House situation and why Democrats are favored to capture a majority (3:00). Then they began to look at some races that might be more competitive than expected. They dove into two majority-Latino seats in Texas, starting with the open 23rd District, which The Cook Political Report recently moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in its ratings (8:00). They then explored what’s happening in the newly-drawn 35th District, another Likely Republican seat (15:40).Moving to the east, Geoffrey and Erin examined the lay of the land in North Carolina’s 11th District, a Likely Republican seat where Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards is seeking reelection (25:23). In the Midwest, another Likely Republican seat that could be in play is Iowa’s 2nd District, which is open due to GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid (33:38). They then delved into two Colorado seats, the state’s 3rd and 5th districts, where Republican Reps. Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank are seeking reelection, respectively (41:20). They then concluded by talking about some opportunities the GOP might have to compete for Democratic-held seats, such as California’s 13th District and New York’s 4th District (49:30). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Erin Covey, House editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, specializes in U.S. House electoral dynamics. She previews why Democrats look favored in 2026. Short segments explore under-the-radar battlegrounds in Texas, North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado. The conversation also touches on fundraising, primaries, and shifting local dynamics that could reshape competitive congressional races.

Lakshya Jain, Director of Political Data at The Argument and co-founder of Split Ticket, breaks down new polling work and what it reveals about shifting coalitions. They discuss changes in support among young, Hispanic, and white working-class voters. Conversation covers turnout models, persuasion, public opinion on transgender issues, and why men and women answer surveys differently.

Last week, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley announced he would seek reelection as an independent in California’s blue-leaning 6th District. Kiley, a two-term congressman, had been targeted by Golden State Democrats’ redistricting plan, which chopped up his red-leaning district into six pieces. But is Kiley really an IINO — independent in name only? He will continue to caucus with the GOP, and his decision to identify as an independent is clearly related to his tough electoral circumstances.The thing is, Kiley is just the latest independent attempting to effectively run as a stand-in for one of the major parties. DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by DDHQ Election Analyst Eric Cunningham to discuss this phenomenon of “fake”, “pseudo-” or “quasi-” independent candidates. Also the editor-in-chief of Elections Daily, Cunningham has dug into this trend in downballot races.They opened the conversation by exploring Kiley’s situation, including the electoral calculations that helped inform his decision to seek reelection as an independent. Then they dug into a high-profile example of a left-leaning independent: Dan Osborn, who is running for Senate in Nebraska in 2026. In 2024, Osborn ran as an independent in a fairly close race against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.Building on the Osborn example, the pair talked about three other left-leaning independents who are running for Senate in Montana (Seth Bodnar), South Dakota (Brian Bengs), and Idaho (Todd Achilles). They discussed the challenges these candidates face, including whether Democrats run their own candidate or back the independent. A one-on-one shot against the Republican nominee would at least somewhat improve these candidates’ already-low chance of success.These four independents are just the latest to run for Senate in red states. In 2022, Evan McMullin ran in Utah; in 2020, Al Gross ran in Alaska; and in 2014, Greg Orman ran in Kansas. In a different-but-related category, both independents presently in the Senate each caucus with the Democrats — Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Still, Kiley is not the only GOP candidate to attempt such a move: California’s 2018 Insurance Commissioner race also featured an ex-Republican. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

We’ve talked a great deal about redistricting in the 2026 midterm election cycle — and with good reason. Six states have drawn new maps, and more could join in soon. But looking beyond 2026, major events could shake up redistricting and reapportionment. This includes the potential end of the Voting Rights Act as we know it and major shifts in population that will affect how many U.S. House seats each state has after the 2030 census.To examine these topics, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Sean Trende, the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. Sean shared his deep well of knowledge about all things redistricting and reapportionment.They led off the conversation by examining how the conservative-dominated Supreme Court of the United States seems likely to weaken or dismantle the Voting Rights Act in the case Louisiana v. Callais. Such a decision probably would not have a huge impact on the 2026 election, but it would open the door to a fresh round of redistricting before the 2028 cycle. A number of Republican-controlled states in the South would almost certainly redraw their maps to reduce or eliminate entirely many majority-Black seats, which could then spark Democratic-led states to redistrict in response.From there, they discussed population projections for 2030 that suggest potential seat gains for big Republican-leaning states like Texas and Florida, and seat losses for major Democratic-leaning states like California and New York. This could affect the battle for control of the House, but it will also have ramifications for the Electoral College in the 2032 presidential election. Red states would gain electoral votes based on the 2024 election results, and the campaign focus on the swing states would likely shift more to the Sun Belt trio of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

It’s almost primary time! This coming Tuesday, three states — Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas — will hold their regular primaries to nominate candidates for various federal and state offices. This will begin six months of primaries across 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the final races occurring in September.Of those states, Texas will host most of the high-profile races happening on March 3. To talk about the Lone Star State contests, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Gabby Birenbaum, the Washington Correspondent for The Texas Tribune. Gabby joined the DDHQ Podcast in December to talk about Texas’s electoral slate, and she returned to help clarify where things stand in the state’s major primary races.The conversation opened with the U.S. Senate race, looking at the dynamics of the three-way Republican primary involving incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Cornyn and Paxton look headed for a May 26 runoff, but don’t write off Hunt entirely. On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are facing off in a much-watched contest that looks to be quite close.Down the ballot, some U.S. House primaries have grabbed their own share of headlines. Most notably, Rep. Tony Gonzales faces a tough primary challenge in Texas’s 23rd District under a cloud of scandal regarding an alleged affair with a staffer. The staffer committed suicide last September and, earlier this week, it came out that Gonzales had sent explicit texts to her, which has led some Republicans to call for his resignation. Beyond that race, Texas’s redistricted map has precipitated a number of heated primary contests for both parties, including the Democratic primaries in the 18th and 33rd districts, and the GOP primary in the 2nd District. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Mid-decade redistricting could be a wildfire that keeps burning and just won’t go out. Six states have already implemented new maps, either via newly-passed laws or court action. But seven other states — and perhaps more — have at least some chance of drawing new lines ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Much depends on various contingencies, including the passage of a constitutional amendment by voters in Virginia and the potential timing of a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court dismantling the Voting Rights Act as we know it. And beyond 2026, politicians and activists in many states, such as Republicans in Utah and Democrats in Colorado, are already making moves with an eye on redistricting in 2028. Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Nathaniel Rakich, the managing editor at Votebeat, to examine the ins and outs of redistricting. They looked at the overall redistricting picture and the range of potential outcomes from the lines implemented so far. They then provided an overview of the states that could join the redistricting fray, including Virginia and Florida. From there, they zoomed in on the potential remaps in the Democratic-controlled states of Virginia and Maryland. They then talked about how referendums could play into redistricting beyond Virginia. This includes a GOP-backed effort in Utah to repeal the state’s redistricting rules with an eye on another new map in 2028, a citizen veto measure in Missouri to block Republican-passed legislation to establish a new map for 2026, and a push by Colorado Democrats to override the state’s independent redistricting commission and implement a Democratic gerrymander in 2028. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

In recent months, one growing political narrative is the extent to which President Donald Trump has lost ground with young men. In the 2024 election, Trump lost among 18-29 year olds as a whole, but he did better than in his past elections. His improvement among young men especially stood out because he actually carried the group as a whole, according to some studies. The explanations for Trump’s performance have ranged from negative economic views among young people to Trump’s embrace of podcasters to connect with voters.Yet recent research suggests young men have soured on Trump. One study from the left-leaning Speaking with American Men Project found that Trump’s standing among young men has declined. But is Trump losing more ground among young men than among other groups? Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Mary Radcliffe, head of research at FiftyPlusOne, to talk about Trump’s approval among young men and more broadly. She recently found that Trump’s decline among young men was not necessarily outsized compared to other groups, most notably among women.The conversation began with Mary’s article and the narrative surrounding Trump’s standing with young men. They explored the difficulties of actually ascertaining the views of this particular subgroup and the small amount of reliable polling that’s available to study young men’s attitudes. They then discussed the reality that Trump’s approval has fallen across the broad, including a similar rate of decline in attitudes toward him among both men and women. They followed this by looking at changes in Trump’s approval among groups that played an important role in his winning 2024 coalition, including independents and Latinos. Trump’s declining approval on his handling of different issues likely plays into the growing dissatisfaction toward his presidency across different groups. Lastly, they talked about broader trends in Trump’s approval and what they could mean for the 2026 midterms. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

It’s easy to focus on the high-profile elections happening this November. But many voters will have myriad downballot races to consider, too, including two important local offices: prosecutor and sheriff. These officials play a pivotal role in implementing policing and criminal justice policies. But they also matter to immigration, as shown by recent disagreements over collaboration between local law enforcement and ICE. In 2026, there are roughly 2,400 elections for prosecutor and sheriff, which means a large share of the nation’s 3,100+ counties and county-equivalents will vote on at least one of these offices.To explore these under-the-radar elections, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Daniel Nichanian, founder and editor-in-chief of the digital publication Bolts. Nichanian and the Bolts team cover local elections and institutions that affect American politics, with a particular focus on criminal justice, policing, voting rights, and democracy. Nichanian recently put together a great guide covering which states have prosecutor and/or sheriff elections on the ballot this year, and an overview of some of the biggest races and issues at play.The conversation started with an overview of why these office are important and challenging to cover. They then discussed sheriff elections within the context of cooperation with ICE, a highly-contested debate in more Democratic-leaning places, and then the wider implications of sheriff elections for policing. Then the chat turned to prosecutors and the conflict between more reform-minded and more conservative proponents within the criminal justice system. These debates do not always wear straightforward partisan labels in the way that, say, a U.S. Senate election does. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

A big part of the 2026 midterms is the race for the U.S. Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in the GOP’s favor, Democrats must gain four seats for party control to shift. Of the races that could decide control, many will turn on the performances of high-profile women candidates. Those contests include Alaska, where Democrats’ chances of flipping the seat rest on the shoulders of former Rep. Mary Peltola, and Iowa, where the GOP’s odds of retaining the seat depend on Rep. Ashley Hinson’s political acumen. Other races will not be competitive in November, but the favored party could nominate a woman candidate who could change the look and feel of the Senate. For instance, Rep. Julia Letlow is challenging Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican primary, while an open-seat race in Illinois features two Democratic women contenders, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly.To explore what’s happening in these races, Decision Desk Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined on the podcast by Grace Panetta from The 19th News. As a politics reporter for The 19th, Panetta covers candidates, issues, voters, and everything else happening on the campaign trail. Panetta has written extensively about many of these Senate races, so she was the perfect person to chat with about the role women candidates are playing in the 2026 election cycle.The conversation first focused on seats that will likely have competitive elections in November and could help decide control of the Senate. These contests include Republican-held seats that are on the ballot in Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, as well as a Democratic-held seat in Michigan. The discussion then turned to seats that are safer for one party but that have interesting primaries, including Minnesota, Illinois, and Louisiana. We hope you enjoy the conversation! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com