Episode 15: Sizing Up The Senate, with Grace Panetta from The 19th

A big part of the 2026 midterms is the race for the U.S. Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in the GOP’s favor, Democrats must gain four seats for party control to shift. Of the races that could decide control, many will turn on the performances of high-profile women candidates. Those contests include Alaska, where Democrats’ chances of flipping the seat rest on the shoulders of former Rep. Mary Peltola, and Iowa, where the GOP’s odds of retaining the seat depend on Rep. Ashley Hinson’s political acumen.

Other races will not be competitive in November, but the favored party could nominate a woman candidate who could change the look and feel of the Senate. For instance, Rep. Julia Letlow is challenging Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican primary, while an open-seat race in Illinois features two Democratic women contenders, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly.

To explore what’s happening in these races, Decision Desk Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined on the podcast by Grace Panetta from The 19th News. As a politics reporter for The 19th, Panetta covers candidates, issues, voters, and everything else happening on the campaign trail. Panetta has written extensively about many of these Senate races, so she was the perfect person to chat with about the role women candidates are playing in the 2026 election cycle.

The conversation first focused on seats that will likely have competitive elections in November and could help decide control of the Senate. These contests include Republican-held seats that are on the ballot in Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, as well as a Democratic-held seat in Michigan. The discussion then turned to seats that are safer for one party but that have interesting primaries, including Minnesota, Illinois, and Louisiana. We hope you enjoy the conversation!

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